In the Post-2017 Succession Discourse, the shape of President Sirleaf’s Inner Circle may hold few clues

The President has largely been mute with regards to succession. It has been a subject best left for later. However, as 2017 edges closer, later is now and the question of succession weighs on the remaining years of her last term in office. This is the case because Liberia’s constitutional order imposes a term limit. The 2017 elections will be a milestone. It will be the first substantive change from one democratically elected government to the other since the end of the country’s civil wars. Successful democratic transition in post conflict societies has been documented by scholars as an important marker for a country’s progress from conflict to long term stability.

The President’s influence in her successor depends on popular support for her legacy. The President has made clear her priorities to continue to revitalize the post-war economy, to rebuild infrastructure, to restore energy and to provide basic services. On this latter question, the  quest to ensure that basic services are common for many and delivered by units of the government closest to the people in ways  that assure participation, accountability and ownership has a way to go. These priorities can also benefit from similar efforts to instill human rights norms, the rule of law and accountability across all levels of society. The unfulfilled promise of the Truth and Reconciliation processes leaves impunity to war crimes and other violations still unaddressed, a situation that has impact on the human rights situation of the country.

Two likely scenarios are expected to unfold in terms of the shape of the President’s inner circle.  The inner circle may expand on the basis of popular support for the President through high approval ratings. Under this scenario, many will see their political survival tied to the President. An incumbent President with high approval rating will have high political currency. The other scenario is one in which the inner circle closes. This will become the case when those loyal to the President begin to find loyalties elsewhere when they sense that their political survival is no longer aligned with a President who may face low approval rating. It may be the case of allies jumping a sinking ship and or a case where the President shed allies who are viewed as liabilities to her legacy. 

Four scores four years ago, an incumbent President died in office and was replaced by his vice President. This is how far Liberians have to go in the country’s recent history to see the first non-violent constitutional transfer of power.

The expected democratic transition from one elected President to the other in 2017 itself answers an important legacy question – Liberians from all sides of the political divide know well that maintaining peace, through successful transition is a sure way to continue economic development and the improvement of the living situation of the people.

 

 

Charles Lawrence lives and works in Liberia and writes in his personal capacity.